An analysis of why social protests in Iran are becoming radicalized (Investigating structural factors with a look at Craig Parsons' theoretical framework)

Abstract



ince the second half of the 2010s, social protests in Iran have experienced increasing radicalization, characterized by escalating violence, structural shifts in slogans and demands, spontaneity, lack of organization and leadership, shorter intervals between protest waves, widespread distrust toward civil society organizations and formal grievance mechanisms, and a preference for direct street demonstrations. These features signify profound and foundational changes in the dynamics of claim-making processes. This study seeks to provide a comprehensive and multidimensional analysis of the factors driving the radicalization of social protests in Iran, with a specific focus on structural determinants.

The core research question is: What are the primary factors contributing to the radicalization of social protests in Iran? To address this question, the theoretical framework of Craig Parsons is utilized. This framework emphasizes a holistic analysis that integrates structural, institutional, psychological, and attitudinal dimensions in understanding political and social phenomena. The study employs a qualitative methodology based on thematic analysis. Key themes and influential factors were identified through the analysis of expert interviews and scholarly literature pertinent to the subject.

The findings reveal eleven macro-level structural factors contributing to the radicalization of protests in Iran: the crises inherent in transitional societies, the resurgence of the state-nation cleavage, structural economic dysfunctions, generational shifts and the distinct influence of Generation Z, the accumulation of social cleavages, structural transformations in the public sphere, the rigidity of the political system and failed reform initiatives, environmental and infrastructural crises, and Iran’s geopolitical and international positioning.

These structural factors interact with institutional, psychological, and attitudinal dimensions, collectively creating the context for the emergence and intensification of radical protests. Policy recommendations to address and manage these challenges include: reforming political and economic structures, reducing dependency on rentier revenues, enhancing public participation in social and political processes, effectively managing generational and cultural transitions, and establishing formal and legal frameworks to channel grievances and facilitate peaceful expression of dissent.