A Technological Transition in Foreign Policy: Impact of AI Governance on the Geopolitical Role of the United Arab Emarates

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of International Relations, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.

2 Department of Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

3 Department of Conflict and Collaboration in the Middle East, Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies Center, Tehran, Iran

10.22081/psq.2025.71520.2974

Abstract

This article analyzes and explains the "technological transition in foreign policy," focusing on a case study of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It argues that smart and purposeful governance of artificial intelligence (AI) has become a key tool for redefining and enhancing the UAE's geopolitical role in both regional and global arenas. In an era where emerging technologies, especially AI, are transforming fundamental concepts
of power, security, and diplomacy, the UAE, through a forward-looking approach and strategic investments, has sought to transition from a traditional oil-based power to a technological and influential actor in the new world order. The central question of the research revolves around how AI governance and its mechanisms have impacted the UAE's foreign policy and geopolitical position. The article's hypothesis posits that the strategic use of AI and the creation of technological governance structures have led to an increase in soft power, diplomatic influence, and the consolidation of the UAE's geopolitical position both regionally and globally. This study, employing a qualitative approach and using strategic content analysis, examines the UAE’s documents, policies, and actions in this domain.
The research findings indicate that the UAE’s strategy goes beyond purely economic dimensions and domestic development, establishing a systematic connection between artificial intelligence policies and foreign policy objectives. The country, through the establishment of pioneering institutions such as the "Ministry of Artificial Intelligence" (2017), the first of its kind globally, and the formulation of the "UAE National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2031," has defined a comprehensive framework to position itself
as a global hub in this field. This strategy is built on key pillars such as institutional development, talent acquisition, data-driven infrastructure development, and the creation of an innovative ecosystem. Massive investments in technology companies like G42, which recently attracted a $1.5 billion investment from Microsoft, as well as the development of native large language models like Falcon, highlight the UAE’s efforts to shift from being a consumer of technology to a producer and architect of the digital order. In the geopolitical dimension, AI governance has enabled the UAE to employ "technological diplomacy" as one of the key pillars of its foreign policy. By hosting global technology giants, offering its AI models as open-source, and striving to play a role in global regulatory frameworks, the UAE positions itself as a responsible and leading player in the technology field. These actions have significantly strengthened the country's "soft power" and helped brand it as a modern, innovative, and forward-thinking state. The article shows that the UAE is engaged in an "intelligent balancing game" between the major technology powers, namely the United States and China. While it welcomes collaboration with American companies like Microsoft and OpenAI, it seeks to avoid complete dependence on any single power and diversifies its technological relationships. This opportunistic approach allows the UAE to define an independent and key position for itself in the global geopolitical competition. From a power perspective, artificial intelligence is becoming a new component alongside military and economic power. The UAE, by integrating advanced technologies into
its defense and security structures—evident in its technological collaborations with
Israel following the "Abraham Accords"—is also strengthening its "hard power." This technological transition is not merely a choice but a strategic necessity for survival and influence in the 21st century. Recognizing this reality, the UAE has successfully employed AI as a tool to increase strategic independence, create sustainable economic advantages, and redefine its role as a small but influential power in regional and global equations. Ultimately, the article concludes that the UAE’s model of integrating AI governance with foreign policy objectives is a successful example of how small and medium-sized states can use technology to overcome traditional geopolitical constraints and play a role beyond their conventional weight in the international system. This model can serve as a template for other developing countries seeking to take a more active role in shaping the future global order.
 

Keywords

References

AI Now Institute. (2024). Beyond Techwashing: The UAE’s AI Industrial Policy as a Security Regime. URL= https://ainowinstitute.org/publication/beyond-techwashing-the-uaes-ai-industrialpolicy-as-a-security-regime.
Al Khatib, I. (2024). Beyond Techwashing: The UAE’s AI Industrial Policy as a Security Regime. URL= https://ainowinstitute.org/publication/beyond-techwashing-the-uaes-ai-industrialpolicy-as-a-security-regime.
Al Olama, O.S. (2024). AI GUIDE. National program for artificial intelligence.
Al Otaiba, Y. (2024). Forging the Future of AI Together: UAE-US Advanced Technology Cooperation. Embassy of the United Arab Emirates Washington DC.
Alexander, K. P. (2020). Artificial Intelligence and Innovation in the UAE’s National Discourse. URL= https://trendsresearch.org/insight/artificial-intelligence-and-innovation-in-the-uaes-national-discourse/
Allen, G.C. & Chan, T. (2017). Artificial Intelligence and National Security. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
Allison, G. (2021). The Great Tech Rivalry: China vs the U.S. Harvard Kennedy School.
Axios. (2023). UAE wants to disrupt the AI superpowers.   
URL= https://www.axios.com/2023/09/26/uae-disrupt-ai-superpowers (para. 4).
Babiker, A. (2023). Artificial Intelligent in UAE (A Study on the Uses and Attitudes of AI in Media Companies). Emirati Journal of Digital Art AND Media, 1(1), pp. 4-8.
Bhatia, R. (2020). UAE’s push for AI.   
URL= https://www.sme10x.com/technology/uaes-push-for-ai.
BISI. (2024). The UAE’s technology diplomacy balancing act.         
URL= https://bisi.org.uk/reports/the-uaes-technology-diplomacy-balancing-act.
Bjola, C. & Holmes, M. (2020). Digital Diplomacy and International Organisations: Autonomy, Legitimacy and Contestation. Routledge.
Brookings. (2023). The geopolitics of generative AI.         
URL= https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-geopolitics-of-generative-ai/
Bughin, J., Seong, J., Manyika, J., Chui, M. & Joshi, R. (2018). Notes from the AI frontier: Modeling the impact of AI on the world economy. McKinsey Global Institute.
Carchidi, V. & Soliman, M. (23 May 2023). The technical is geopolitical: Expanding US-UAE relations through AI. URL= https://www.mei.edu/publications/technical-geopolitical-expanding-us-uae-relations-through-ai.
Chaudhary, A. & Warner, B.R. (2021). Algorithmic Public Diplomacy: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on International Relations. International Studies Review, 23(4), pp.1–16.
CSIS. (2025). The United Arab Emirates’ AI Ambitions.     
URL= https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-arab-emirates-ai-ambitions.
Dafoe, A. (2018). AI Governance: A Research Agenda. Centre for the Governance of AI, University of Oxford.
Dhabi Government. (2024). The state of Artificial Intelligence. Report of Business and Economic Intelligence Sector.
URL= https://www.doe.gov.ae/-/media/Project/ADCCI/ADCCI/Media-Center-Publications/Research-and-Reports/2024/AI_Sectoral-Report_Feb2024.pdf
Diplomacy. (2023). How is the United Arab Emirates thriving in a fragmented geopolitical landscape. URL= https://www.diplomacy.edu/updates/how-is-the-united-arab-emirates-thriving-in-a-fragmented-geopolitical-landscape/
Dubai World Trade Center. (2023). Digital and Information Communication Technology (ICT). URL= https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/united-arab-emirates-digital-and-information-communication-technology-ict.
Flew, T., Martin, F. & Suzor, N. (2019). Internet regulation as media policy: Rethinking the question of digital communication platform governance. Journal of Digital Media & Policy, 10(1), pp. 33–50.
Floridi, L., Cowls, J., Beltrametti, M., Chatila, R., Chazerand, P., Dignum, V. ... & Vayena, E. (2018). AI4People—An Ethical Framework for a Good AI Society: Opportunities, Risks, Principles, and Recommendations. Minds and Machines, 28(4), pp. 689–707. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11023-018-9482-5.
Geels, F.W. (2002). Technological Transitions as Evolutionary Reconfiguration Processes: A Multi-Level Perspective and a Case-Study. Research Policy, 31(8–9), pp. 1257–1274.
GIP Digital Watch Observatory team. (2024). OpenAI’s CEO suggests UAE as global AI regulatory sandbox. URL=  
https://dig.watch/updates/openais-ceo-suggests-uae-as-global-ai-regulatory-sandbox.
Gorwa, R., Binns, R. & Katzenbach, C. (2020). Algorithmic regulation: A comparative perspective. Internet Policy Review, 9(4), pp. 1–23.
Halaweh, M. (2018). Viewpoint: Artificial Intelligence Government (Gov. 3.0): The UAE Leading Mode. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 1(62), pp. 269-27.
Heath, R. (2023). UAE wants to disrupt the AI superpowers.
URL= https://www.axios.com/2023/09/26/uae-disrupt-ai-superpowers.
Kashyap, S.V. (2024). How Saudi Arabia and UAE’s bold AI strategy is transforming the
tech landscape in the Middle East. URL= https://www.edgemiddleeast.com/emergent-tech/how-saudi-arabia-and-uaes-bold-ai-strategy-is-transforming-the-tech-landscape-in-the-middle-east.
Kaspersen, L.B. & Andersen, R.S. (2020). Geopolitics in the Digital Age. Journal of International Affairs, 73(2), pp. 1–12.
Kello, L. (2017). The Virtual Weapon and International Order. Yale University Press.
Khaled, M. (2023). From Vision to Impact: UAE's Inspiring the World as an Innovation Hub and Source of AI and Digital Technology. URL= https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/from-vision-impact-uaes-inspiring-world-innovation-hub-khaled.
Kitchen, K. (2024). The UAE’s AI Dreams.        
URL= https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-uaes-ai-dreams/
Lazard. (2023). Geopolitics of Artificial Intelligence. Lazard Geopolitical Advisory.
Leo, M.D. (2024). Opinion | UAE’s bold plan for tech leadership.     
URL= https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/opinion/opinion-uaes-bold-plan-for-tech-leadership-83849.
Microsoft. (2024). Microsoft invests $1.5 billion in Abu Dhabi’s G42 to accelerate AI development and global expansion.
URL = https://news.microsoft.com/2024/04/15/microsoft-invests-1-5-billion-in-abu-dhabis-g42-to-accelerate-ai-development-and-global-expansion/
Miragenews. (2024). Dubai Emerges as Global Hub for Artificial Intelligence. URL=        
https://www.miragenews.com/dubai-emerges-as-global-hub-for-artificial-1257378/
Moiz, M. (2024). UAE’s AI Ambitions: Leading the World by 2031.    
URL= https://thinktank.pk/2024/07/10/uaes-ai-ambitions-leading-the-world-by-2031/
Mucci, T. & Stryker, C. (2024). What is AI governance?      
URL= https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/ai-governance
Nye, J.S. (2011). The Future of Power. New York: PublicAffairs.
Nye, J.S. (2021). The Changing Nature of Power in the 21st Century. Political Science Quarterly, 136(1), pp. 7–25.
Pavel, B., Ke, I., Spirtas, M., Ryseff, J., Sabbag, L., Smith, G., Scholl, K. & Lumpkin, D. (2023). AI and Geopolitics: How Might AI Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations?   
URL= https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA3034-1.html.
Quest search and selection. (2019). Can UAE be a global hub for Artifical Intelligence?     
URL= https://www.questsearch.co.uk/2019/06/can-uae-be-a-global-hub-for-artifical-intelligence/
Singh, J. (2024). Why the Middle East is Poised to Become a Global Hub for AI. URL=      
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-middle-east-poised-become-global-hub-ai-jasnek-singh-oalwf.
Statista. (2024). Artificial Intelligence - United Arab Emirates. URL=  
https://www.statista.com/outlook/tmo/artificial-intelligence/united-arab-emirates.
Tamir. A. (2024). UAE Artificial Intelligence Landscape. URL=         
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/uae-artificial-intelligence-landscape-aviad-tamir-p8okf.
Tcacenco, V. (2024). UAE's Vision and Strategy for AI. URL=            
https://techbehemoths.com/blog/uae-vision-and-strategy-for-ai.
The Artificial Intelligence, Digital Economy and Remote Work Applications office. (2018). UAE national strategy for artificial intelligence 2031. URL= https://ai.gov.ae/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/UAE-National-Strategy-for-Artificial-Intelligence-2031.pdf.
UAE Government. (2017). UAE Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2031. URL=      
https://u.ae/en/about-the-uae/strategies-initiatives-and-awards/federal-governments-strategies-and-plans/artificial-intelligence.
Ulrichsen, K. C. (2016). The United Arab Emirates: power, politics, and policy-making. Texas: Baker Institute.
West, D.M. & Allen, J.R. (2018). How Artificial Intelligence Is Transforming the World. Brookings Institution.

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics