Futures Studies on the Situational (Security-Defense) Status of Iran and Iraq in the West Asian Regional Security System (2025–2035)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Political Science (Iranian Politics), Ker.C., Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran

2 Department of Political Science and International Relations, Ker.C., Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to identify the situational status and positioning of Iran
and Iraq within the West Asian regional security system over the coming decade. The significance and necessity of this research lie in enabling futures studies theorists and foreign policy analysts to gain a deeper, more nuanced understanding of the future security landscape in West Asia—and the specific roles of Iran and Iraq therein. Armed with these insights, they can develop comprehensive, structured strategies grounded in evidence-based foresight. This research adopts an applied futures studies approach, employing scenario planning as its method. It is qualitative in nature and follows a descriptive-analytical framework. The central question is: In what direction will the defense-security positioning of Iran and Iraq evolve within the West Asian regional situation over the next decade? It appears that the situational positioning of Iran and Iraq in the West Asian regional system will diverge significantly over the coming decade. This stems from their contrasting strategies and objectives within the regional arena. Using an adapted version of Peter Schwartz’s scenario planning methodology, we analyzed the defense-security situation of both countries over the next decade. Our analysis yielded the following key findings.
For Iran, two critical uncertainties emerge based on its interests, drivers, and influential factors in the regional security situation: (1) Central government duality and weakness (fragmentation, pressure, and sanctions); (2) Central government cohesion (alignment between diplomacy and the battlefield). These uncertainties generate two scenarios: (i) Fragmentation and collapse and (ii) attaining regional power and hegemony. For Iraq, two uncertainties were identified based on its influential components and drivers: (1) Central government authority (unity); (2) Central government weakness and disintegration (ethnic conflicts, etc.). The resulting scenarios are (i) Fragmentation; (ii) Federalism; (iii) Cohesive Iraq. The findings indicate that defense-security arrangements in West Asia over the next decade will follow four patterns: hegemonic stability, participatory governance, balance of power, and regional hegemony. Iran, leveraging its interests, capabilities, and regional standing, pursues its ultimate goal—eliminating regional and international rivals and achieving regional hegemony (Scenario 2)—through various strategies. Iraq, in contrast, seeks a participatory model and, to a lesser extent, balance of power, primarily through the Cohesive Iraq and Federalism scenarios.

Keywords

References

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