An Analysis of the Causes and Contexts of Egypt’s Unsuccessful Democratic Transition in Light of the Arab Uprising

Authors

1 PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science, Hamedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Hamedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran

Abstract

Before the onset of the popular uprisings in the Arab world, Egypt was among the stable countries of North Africa. However, it was not long before popular unrest spread to this nation as well. This study aims to explore the theoretical literature and investigate the nature and reasons behind these developments in Egypt, specifically examining the causes and contexts of the country's unsuccessful democratic transition. The main research question is: what factors led to Egypt's unsuccessful democratic transition in light of the Arab Spring? The hypothesis tested in response to this question posits that the failed democratic transition in Egypt resulted from conditions and factors such as the relative weakness of modernization variables—especially per capita income and a fragile middle class—the absence of a political community in Egypt, a lack of elite reconciliation, the role and behavior of the military, and the status of the community in Egypt. Employing a descriptive-analytical method, the article collects data through documents and establishes logical connections among the data, subsequently extracting causal relationships between phenomena. The final data analysis is founded on the theory of transition to democracy, which encompasses various sub-theories that clarify their analytical outputs. The conclusion drawn is that whether in Egypt or in all societies that experience an unsuccessful transition to democracy, such a failure leads to a period of disillusionment regarding the attainment of democracy. Additionally, the internal contexts contributing to this unsuccessful transition are significantly more important than external factors, and when assessing the failures in transitioning to democracy, prioritizing internal variables is essential.

Keywords

References

Al-Anani, K. (2015). The 'Anguish' of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Routledge Handbook of Arab Spring (L. Sadiki, ed.). Routledge.
Badawi, M. (2014). Middle class transformations in the Arab World. Contemporary Arab Affairs, 7(2).
Bashiriyeh, H. (2005). Transition to democracy. Tehran: Negah-e Moaser. [In Persian]
Bashiriyeh, H. (2006). Transition to democracy. Tehran: Negah-e Moaser. [In Persian]
Beinin, J. & Vairel, F. (2011). Social Movements, Mobilization, and Contestation in the Middle East and North Africa. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Bizaban, A.R. (2017). Comparative analysis of obstacles to democratic transition in the Middle East. Social Sciences, 26(78), 249-297. [In Persian]
Blaydes, L. (2011). Elections and Distributive Politics in Mubarak's Egypt. Cambridge University Press.
Ghazi Moradi, H. (2021). Transitions to democracy. Tehran: Akhtaran. [In Persian]
Ghazvini Haeri, Y. (2011). The tsunami in the Arab world: A discourse on recent developments (2011) in the Arab world. Tehran: Amir Kabir. [In Persian]
Goldstone, J. A. (2011). Understading the revolutions of 2011. Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2011-04-14/understanding-revolutions-2011
Huntington, S. (2002). The third wave of democratization at the end of the twentieth century (A. Shahsa, Trans.). Tehran: Rozaneh. [In Persian]
Linz, J. & Alfred, S. (1996). Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation, South Europe, South Amrica and Post-Commumist Europe. Johns Hopkins University Press.
Mirtorabi, S. (2015). Analysis of popular uprisings in the Middle East from the perspective of the political economy of oil. Political and International Studies, 7(24), 91-137. [In Persian]
Niakooee, S. A. (2013). Contemporary Arab Uprisings: Different Processes and Outcomes. Japanese Journal of political science, 14.
Niakouei, S.A. (2012). Anatomy of contemporary revolutions in the Arab world. Tehran: Mizan. [In Persian]
Niakouei, S.A. (2020). The Arab winter and the enigma of democracy in the Middle East. Tehran: Sokhan. [In Persian]
Niakouei, S.A.M. (2016). Military coups in Egypt and Turkey: Different contexts and outcomes. Political and International Studies, 27, 65-96. [In Persian]
Osman, T. (2010). Egypt on the Brink: From Nasser to Mubarak Yale. University Press.
Pourhasan, N. (2016). The "deep state" of the military and the "coup of civil society" in Egypt (focusing on developments from 2011-2015). Journal of Islamic World Political Studies, 5(2), 53-74. [In Persian]
Schmitter, P. C., & Karl, T. L (1993). What Democracy is…and is Not. (L. Diamond & M. F. Plattner, eds). The Global Resurgence of Democracy. Johns Hopkins University Press.
Stephan, A. & Linz, J. J.  (2013). Democratization theory and the Arab Spring. Journal of Democracy, 24(2).

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics