Obstacles to Peace and Factors of War in the Middle East: A Neo-Realist Approach

Peace in the Middle East, as a complex issue, has been fundamentally a function of the realist and negative definition of this concept. This interpretation of peace can be considered a common definition among different streams of realism. This approach to the Middle East has a structural view, meaning that it considers the Middle East as a system subordinate to the international system, and that changes in the macrostructure of the international system directly change war and peace in the regions. Given this introduction, the first question is: What are the most important obstacles to peace in the Middle East from a neorealist approach? Perhaps in response, it can be said that in the Middle East, the level of subnational microanalysis means an increase in the number of non-state actors that the structure cannot effectively monitor, the irrational actions of actors mean a lack of calculation of benefits and losses in foreign policy assessments, the imbalance in the system due to the entry of an interventionist actor such as the United States of America and the division of interests of major actors in the region and the uneven distribution of capabilities due to external support for some regional actors such as Saudi Arabia and the Israeli regime act in a way that contributes to the continuation of instability. On the other hand, the geopolitical and strategic position of the Middle East has led to the presence of interventionist actors that have largely disrupted the balance in the system; this is in a situation where the reluctance of trans-regional actors to intervene in regional issues could have forced local actors to solve the problem. The structural approach in this area believes that even if the United States leaves the region and China enters as the most important alternative power in the region, similar actor behavior will follow, as structural pressure forces the powerful actor to behave in the same way. The present study attempts to focus on a negative definition of peace in the Middle East and address the obstacles to peace from a neorealist perspective and tries to provide solutions to achieve a minimum of peace in the Middle East within the framework of the aforementioned theory.