سیاست‌گذاری تکنولوژی و بحران‌های منطقه‌ای دهۀ سوم قرن بیست‌و‌یکم

Regional crises remain a central concern for scholars and practitioners in the fields of international relations and regional studies. The significance of the issue lies in the potential for such crises to reverberate beyond local borders, influencing both the affected region and the broader international system. Depending on the regional context and underlying causes, these crises can take on various forms. This study aims to offer a clear understanding of regional crises in the third decade of the twenty-first century. I argue that this decade—marked by the transition from a networked society to one driven by artificial intelligence, shaped by technological transformations—has created fertile ground for long-term, high-intensity, and unpredictable crises, particularly in volatile regions. The study takes note of the fact that the third decade of this century is distinguished from the bipolar era in terms of identity-based, structural, and geopolitical crises, many of which are rooted in global technological developments. These shifts can be analyzed within the framework of “strategic geoeconomics,” referring to the interconnection between industrial tools, regional security strategies, new technologies, and artificial intelligence. Communication technologies and information tools are now critical factors in shaping the balance of power and the political survival of key actors. At the heart of this process is the technology policymaking of global powers and regional players. In the third wave of the technological revolution, technologies have become increasingly replicable and diffuse, posing major challenges for great powers. The core of this challenge lies in the changing balance of power, the rise of identity-driven groups, and the escalation of regional crises. The central question of this article is: What are the defining features of technology policymaking, and how has it shaped regional crises in the third decade of the twenty-first century? The article’s main hypothesis is that twenty-first-century technology policymaking is concerned with the shift from a network society to an AI-driven order, giving rise to escalating crises and chaotic regions. This is because any transformation in technological configurations has triggered shifts in power balance, the formation of resistance identities, and the emergence of a reconfigured global order. The main cause of this process can be traced to concepts such as changing power dynamics, rise of identity groups, and escalating regional crises such as Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Each of these factors can be viewed as part of the security strategies of both regional players and global powers, manifesting in different forms across various regions—including Southwest Asia. The geoeconomics of power in this region is deeply complex and interwoven, making it difficult to understand and making any relevant action contingent upon multiple interrelated factors. The Gaza crisis, in particular, stands out as one of the most critical security challenges of the twenty-first century, fundamentally shaped by strategic geoeconomic imperatives that have disrupted prior regional and global assumptions.