نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه علوم سیاسی و روابط بینالملل، واحد شهرضا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شهرضا، ایران.
2 گروه علوم سیاسی و روابط بینالملل، واحد شهرضا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شهرضا، ایران
3 گروه معارف اسلامی، واحد نجفآباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجفآباد، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
How have the relations of the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf with Israel influenced the regional policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in three time periods: before October 7, 2023, after that date, and after the 12-day war of 2025? The theoretical framework of this research is based on Stephen Walt's balance of threat theory, and the main hypothesis is that the behavior and orientation of Arab countries towards Israel are a function of
the perceived threat from Iran—based on four components: aggregate power, geographic proximity, offensive capabilities, and aggressive intentions—and this change in threat perception directly shapes Iran's regional strategies. The research method is qualitative and comparative, and data have been collected through library sources, official documents, and reliable reports. They have then been analyzed using qualitative content analysis based on the indicators of balance of threat theory. The findings show that before October 7, the increased security convergence between several Arab countries and Israel was largely due to the high perception of threat from Iran and led to the strengthening of the collective weight of this coalition and the enhancement of its offensive capabilities. After October 7, due to changes in the perception of intentions and the costs of conflict, some Arab governments leaned towards de-escalation with Iran and slowing down the normalization process with Israel; while others continued cautious cooperation with Tel Aviv. In the period after the 12-day war, despite concerns about Iran's offensive capabilities, Arab countries have generally avoided hard balancing against Tehran, preferring to maintain their position through caution and threat management.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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